Saturday, January 26, 2013

Real Estate Market: and Novel Writing 202

Plucky has been quiet here lately.

Distractions abound, the most venal being (a) Facebook posts that piss me off, and (b) despair.

I was dissed and/or de-friended twice within the last few days. The first was a young woman whom I don't know that well (for real) but knew professionally when I was a professional. She worked in marketing for a title company, was of average ability, below average education, and just otherwise unremarkable, except she painted on her face with layers and layers of foundation, eyeliner, rouge, and so-on, so that you always had the impression you were talking to a hologram that had limited voice-recognition technology.

She wrote a post that contained the word "alright." My comment on her congenitally vapid post was, "all right." She unfriended me.

The next occurred in a string having to do with Michelle Obama, the original poster commenting on how hot she was. I ignored all subsequent frat boy posts on the First Lady's looks, butt, clothes, how she compared to Jackie Kennedy and so on, until some fucking moron wrote, "What has she ever accomplished?"

I responded with a few of the First Lady's accomplishments--Princeton grad, Harvard Law School, work with veterans, and other items easily discoverable, to which a poster named Willard vilified me for being a pussy boy, always being the first in the room to prove how much of a feminist he is, to which I noted Willard's accomplishments no doubt fit on a postage stamp, which reduced me, in Willard's view, to a "dumb ass."

Oooh. At least he made it two words.

Why did I waste time on this? I don't know. But this is the distraction thing I was referring to.

The Despair part is more complex and is something I don't understand. A curtain of sadness comes down and the lights go off.  I do not like being sad, but I'm just sad no matter what. Nothing makes it go away. It comes and stays as long as it likes, and it still hasn't gone away.

Technically, things are coming along....well, well enough. When Sad comes, the voice is affected (see a future post on What Is Voice). Writing is really, really hard without voice. 

Also, arranging scenes and stuff that happens/happened into scenes gets hard. In my case, I knew the ending shortly after beginning. You'd think you could just go chapter-by-chapter from beginning to end, but it doesn't work that way. Characters have a huge say, and they tend to do some goddam thing that makes you have to go back and re-do a previous part. Which affects voice, by the way, and when voice gets phony, bad things happen. Which reinforces Sad.

That said, I've managed to keep to my schedule and have broken the 14,000 word barrier.

REAL ESTATE MARKET: Everything I read on the Portland Real Estate Market and the Denver Real Estate Market is pretty much the same: Prices up, not enough homes for sale, turnaround for 2013 and so on.

Don't bet on it.

In the first place, who's saying this crap? Chances are it's real estate brokers. "Now is not a good time to buy a house," said no real estate broker, ever. It's not that they're so much optimists, as a group, than they are Narcissists who sincerely believe they can change market forces by (imagined) strength of will that will result in client gratitude.

Yes, prices bumped up, and yes, there's not enough inventory. Supply and demand laws will nudge prices up, and, with the pent-up demand, the market Shall Return, the Real Estate of Delphi sayeth.

It won't either. Supply is low, but notice no one is talking about demand. A lot of buyers are chasing too few homes right now, but the number of buyers will not reach historical levels. As in: What if all the Baby Boomers did a big die-off? Ninety percent of the subdivisions in America would have vacant homes with not nearly enough buyers.

Well, they (we) won't die off en masse, but demographics are demographics. In my view, home values over the next five or ten or twenty years may not even keep place with inflation.

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